Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 1.384920 1.462128 1.542513 1.632666 1.731218 1.835970 1.956116
2025-12-07 1.254607 1.361180 1.476985 1.612957 1.769262 1.944572 2.157869
2025-12-14 1.158560 1.279006 1.413548 1.576392 1.770114 1.995753 2.282331
2025-12-21 1.098266 1.229559 1.379548 1.565726 1.793732 2.068147 2.430285
2025-12-28 1.062810 1.204880 1.370502 1.580891 1.845632 2.174371 2.624767
2026-01-04 1.018827 1.166556 1.341581 1.568115 1.859603 2.231161 2.756858
2026-01-11 0.994256 1.149697 1.336854 1.583714 1.908706 2.334449 2.957830
2026-01-18 0.966279 1.126795 1.322759 1.585520 1.938494 2.412366 3.128374
2026-01-25 0.953133 1.121349 1.329745 1.614132 2.004602 2.543166 3.386254
2026-02-01 0.916232 1.084104 1.294055 1.583876 1.987604 2.554642 3.464079
2026-02-08 0.876598 1.041860 1.250096 1.540178 1.948967 2.531577 3.484723
2026-02-15 0.852160 1.018295 1.229531 1.527075 1.952374 2.569625 3.605005
2026-02-22 0.835512 1.005072 1.223087 1.534465 1.987578 2.660649 3.827032
2026-03-01 0.809957 0.979316 1.198957 1.516045 1.983990 2.692036 3.951798
2026-03-08 0.780675 0.947613 1.165551 1.482811 1.956164 2.682884 4.003445
2026-03-15 0.761698 0.929014 1.149226 1.473104 1.962957 2.728881 4.158670
2026-03-22 0.752136 0.922668 1.149332 1.486904 2.006111 2.836672 4.441218
2026-03-29 0.734521 0.904796 1.132727 1.475279 2.008648 2.876395 4.596710
2026-04-05 0.726440 0.899643 1.133629 1.489472 2.052561 2.989528 4.913590
2026-04-12 0.714761 0.889131 1.126504 1.491114 2.076049 3.068414 5.170221
2026-04-19 0.711290 0.889833 1.135272 1.517128 2.140729 3.226013 5.622300
2026-04-26 0.691701 0.867442 1.110053 1.489619 2.114342 3.213956 5.688060
2026-05-03 0.669244 0.840541 1.077632 1.449841 2.065429 3.156642 5.641140